Global Conflict or the Pursuit of Peace

For the past two and a half years, America has sent billions to Ukraine. Even with this support from America and the West, Ukraine has not been able to push Russia out of its territory. Despite sanctions and Western condemnation, Russia is stronger now than it was before the war. U.S. and NATO leadership recognize the stalemate in Ukraine. It is considering the idea of deploying NATO "advisors" directly into Ukraine to support the war to shift the balance of power. We have reached a unique moment with the revelations made during the peace talks in 2022 and Russia's openness to return to the negotiating table. To seek escalation over peace would mean war between the U.S., NATO, and Russia, resulting in global conflict between nuclear powers.

Before we escalate this conflict further, we must try to prevent more bloodshed and any potential for a world war. Both sides have reached a point where they can claim to their people that they met their objectives and pursue a pragmatic peace that avoids further war. America can and must lead this peace effort.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted a response by the Biden administration to commit billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars to a war between two Slavic countries, one of which happens to have the largest nuclear arsenal in the world (see also here). Over the last century of warfare, the United States has developed "interventionist" tendencies. The United Nations Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine, pushed heavily (for years) by the current head of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Samantha Power, has only further entrenched and entangled the United States in military adventurism. After thousands of lives lost and trillions spent, it seems that the failure of the Global War on Terrorism, our biggest "military adventure" yet, taught us nothing as a nation. The Ukraine war is trending on the same lines. Even if you support the current strategy in Ukraine, despite sending billions worth of aid and military equipment, Ukraine is in no better place strategically than it was when the war started over two years ago. The choices for the Ukraine war are escalation, stagnation, or an attempt at peace. We have arrived at a critical inflection point and the most sensible choice is peace.

     Source: Sunguk Kim on Unsplash

What has happened over the last two and a half years?

Casualties:
Even without knowing the exact number of both Ukrainian and Russian casualties, the estimated numbers are staggering. Many mainstream news outlets like to highlight Russia's casualties, but these outlets always fail to mention the total percentage of troops killed and available military manpower relative to population. Russia has an estimated 1.37 million more soldiers than Ukraine (including active reserves and paramilitary troops on both sides), and the pool of manpower from which Russia can pull is 69.4 million compared to Ukraine's estimated 22.8 million. With numbers like these, Russia will win a war of attrition.

Bucks, Bullets, and Bombs:
How much money has the United States sent to Ukraine? The Congressional Research Service recently analyzed the Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act via Congressional Budget Office estimates and shows that FY2022, FY2023, and FY2024 combined supplemental funding totals approximately 174.24 Billion dollars, including the most recent Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act - HR 8035, which passed on April 20th, 2024 that outlays another 61 Billion for Ukraine. In addition to this, the United States has depleted its reserves to support the Ukraine war. The most recent weapons list published on April 26th, 2024, by the Pentagon shows what weapons the U.S. sent to Ukraine. 

The financial packages, which include the military aid for Ukraine, come from the supplemental appropriations bills and are sent via several mechanisms, including Reprogramming Actions for Ukraine, the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), the Foreign Military Financing Program/Arms Export Control Act (FMF; 22 U.S.C. §2763), and the "Presidential Drawdown Authority" (PDA), which is an authority given to the President to provide U.S. Department of Defense military stocks and transfer to a foreign government in an "emergency." The PDA authority is seated within Section 506 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, P.L. 87-195; 22 U.S.C. 2151 et seq, and is capped at 100 million unless Congress increases the cap (this is what has happened for Ukraine). There have been 56 PDA drawdowns since August of 2021 valued at 25.213 Billion. The latest update from the Congressional Research Office (CRS), which discusses this drawdown in detail and is a good reference, but states the PDA is 23.9 Billion, but this information does not include the two most recent PDA transfers from March 12th (300 million) and April 24th (1 Billion) 2024. Read more about the PDA for Ukraine here.

FULL REPORT ATTACHED BELOW.

Ukraine Pursuit Of Peace Report

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Heather Kaiser is a former military intelligence officer and veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. She is an independent researcher and analyst for defense, intelligence, and political matters. Heather earned a bachelor's in geopolitics from the United States Military Academy at West Point and earned a degree in sculpture from Indiana University of Pennsylvania. Since the 2020 riots, she has returned to research and analysis of current events for organizations such as American Contingency and Grayzone.

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