Sometimes I Truly Do Hate to Be Right, The Biden Bear is Finally Here

Big Mini-Crash This Week!

DON’T MISS THIS ONE! HUGE WEEK IN THE STOCK MARKET. WORSE TO COME?

Sometimes I Truly Do Hate to Be Right, The Biden Bear is Finally Here

Hi. Peter Navarro here with this week’s market rap for the week ending October 27, 2023, and recall now that since mid-July, I’ve been warning that cash is king in a stock market in which I clearly feared a bearish trend might develop.

I made this call at the time despite abundant evidence to the contrary as the market was exerting bullish tendencies.  Yet, I saw a long list of problems piling up that I believed would soon turn any bullish sentiment into a bear market rout.

For example, here’s a quote from my July 14^th, 2023, substack which maintained a recommendation of cash over equities despite what was a very bullish week.  Here’s what I wrote:

“It was indeed a very good week for the bulls.  From a purely technical trading perspective, the market trend is clearly up; and on this technical signal alone, US markets, along with markets around the world, are likely to see more green than red days, at least for a while. That said, I remain wary and see lower risk generating income in short term treasuries than rolling the stock dice.”

Then, on August 12, 2023, I wrote as the market trend was indeed beginning to turn:

My bottom line is that cash remains king – with “cash” now earning a nice 5% in, for example, six-month T-bills.  If, however, you want to walk a little bit on the wild side – not offering advice here – a good speculation (not bet) might be SPXU, a 3X leveraged exchange trade fund that shorts the S&P 500.  The Biden bear is coming; it’s only a matter of time.

In the category of “I hate it sometimes when I’m right as I don’t want good American citizens to lose their shirts in the stock market, it would turn out July 31 would mark the abrupt end of the short-term Biden bull.  As this 12-month chart below indicates, the S&P 500 peaked on July 31, 2023 at almost 4,600. 

Note: For those listening to the podcasts, just go my substack at

to see the chart!

Since that July 31 peak, the S&P has trended down, and today was an epic technical signal as the S&P 500 closed below both 4,200 and its 200-day moving average. 

These market movements mean two things:

1.      We now officially have a bear market as that drop gets us to about a 10% correction.  (A stock market correction is a decline in the value of a market index or the price of an individual asset that ranges from 10% to 20% from its most recent high.)

2.      Second, there is no guarantee that the correction is over.  Quite the contrary.  The breach of the 200-day moving average opens the door to a steep and perhaps rapid further decline.

I see that decline hitting at least 20% and perhaps as much as 30%.  I base that forecast not on purely technical indicators but rather all of the fundamentals that are going so very wrong in the Bidenomics world. 

To count the ways Bidenomics is killing America -- as we have been doing in this weekly market rap – consider the following:

·         The fiscal cliff we are hurtling towards because of massive deficit spending in the range of now $2 trillion a year.

·         The persistent high oil prices brought about by the green policies of Bidenomics, the US mismanagement of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the explosive nature of the Hamas-Israeli war, and the turning over of OPEC leadership to set oil prices to Saudi Arabia and Russia by the Biden regime.

·         Persistent inflation in other sectors of the economy – food, housing, cars, ouch -- coupled with a tight money policy by the Federal Reserve which shows no signs of loosening.

·         Massive losses in the bond market which may well catalyze a financial sector meltdown; and

·         The geopolitical risks associated with a Communist Chinese attack on Taiwan.

My bottom line then once again is that cash remains king – it’s far safer to park your money in short term insured securities paying out around 5% then risk big losses in the stock market.  Of course, for the speculators there is exchange-traded fund SPXU which I have been noting – it’s a triple-leveraged short of the S&P 500 which is up about 30% since July.

Remember, however, I’m not offering financial advice.  Just indicating how I think about the markets.

My goal is to boost your financial market literacy and thereby help you protect your wealth and job.

Here’s my last take for the week, something that caught my eye like a canary in a coal mine:

The CEO of J.P. Morgan, Jamie Dimon, now qualifies as the Chief Rat in Chief of Wall Street jumping out of a sinking ship. For the first time in 18 years, Rat Jamie is going to sell some of the millions of shares that he has acquired in his tenure. It’s no coincidence here that Dimon, who has helped destroy America by sending our capital offshore, has been sounding the Bidenomics alarm, publicly worrying about the unprecedented crisis we are facing. I wonder if Jamie has any buyer’s remorse for helping to be Donald Trump and give us Joe Biden.

That’s it for now.

Peter Navarro.  Out.