A Strategic Approach to Counter Iran's Influence in the Middle East

Middle East Stability: Invest with the Good, Divest with the Bad

For decades, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF) sought to establish dominance in the Middle East. The Quds Force, fueled by a steady and problematic stream of regional instability, bankrolls groups like Houthi rebels, Lebanese Hezbollah, Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and the Syrian Regime-backed National Defense Forces (NDF). The Quds Force’s success in supporting these destabilizing organizations is largely grounded in their seemingly elusive funding which has in turn fomented an endless drumbeat of chaos in the region. However, Iran’s mafia militia approach to illicit activity will ultimately be their downfall -- here’s why.

Such broad, and at times inscrutable geopolitical puzzles, are often confronted with a sense of resignation tinged with political undercurrents of defeat. Defeatism may be justified for a puzzle where all the pieces may not be known, but Iran and the Middle East are quite the opposite. Iran, its goals, and mission in the Middle East are fundamentally knowable. All the pieces of the puzzle are present and accounted for. A concerted and tangible plan of action can be pursued in ways that drive a severe wedge between Iran and its mercenaries of terror. This is a very broad plan of action -- starting with fortifying key allies and positions in Iraq and Jordan. Such fortifications will serve as an effective countermeasure against Iran’s destabilizing efforts in the Middle East.

I. Fortifying Key Positions: Erbil, Iraq

One crucial step is reinforcing the U.S. position in Erbil, Iraq. For over 6,000 years, Erbil has proven to be a strategic stronghold. Currently, the Kurdish people in northern Iraq have autonomously continued to push back against the Coordinating Framework-led government in Iraq (Iranian proxy), Iran, and Turkey.

By consolidating one leg of our presence in Erbil, we not only protect vital interests by investing in a formidable ally (unlike Al-Basra, Al-Anbar, and Baghdad), but we also send a clear message to Iran that the corrupted Iraqi federal government they control is theirs to keep. Unfortunately, current leadership in Baghdad seems to misunderstand how to communicate strength in this region and despite the U.S. taxpayer spending trillions of dollars in the Iraqi capital, such misplaced support resulted in Secretary Antony Blinkin visiting Baghdad in November 2023 wearing enough kevlar to shield a SWAT team. It’s time to cut our losses and let federal Iraq fail under the weight of Iranian corruption. The U.S. should instead secure a position permanently in northern Iraq’s Kurdish region to ensure a strategic presence between Turkey, Iran, and federal Iraq.

II. United Front Diplomacy with Jordanians and Iraqi Kurds - Symbolic Importance

The U.S. should strategically transfer military forces from Al-Anbar Governorate in Iraq, Deir al-Zour province, and Al-Hasakah province in Syria to the Kingdom of Jordan. This move would not only bolster our presence among allies, Jordan and Israel, but also serve as a deterrent against potential Iranian proxy aggression.

By fortifying relationships with Jordanians and Iraqi Kurds, the U.S. can affordably create a united front against Iran’s destabilizing nature. Jordan, with its geopolitical significance, becomes a crucial ally in countering Iranian influence. Fostering diplomatic ties and joint military exercises with the host nation can create a formidable force to resist Iran’s attempts to draw neighboring countries into a regional conflict and provide a qualified defense for Israel.

Jordan is facing problems of its own, but is a worthy investment. Palistinians currently maintain a 40% minority population in the Kingdom. Jordanian Palistinans hold a more moderate view of extremism than their cousins in the Gaza Strip, but should those sentiments go unaddressed, not only could we lose a great ally like Jordan, but Israel could be pushed off the map. By establishing ourselves in Jordan, we create a wider footprint for stability for Israel and the region.

III. Addressing Root Causes: Strategic Transfer of Forces

Transferring forces away from regions prone to Iranian-backed militias, such as the PMF, Kata’ib Hezbollah, and Regime-backed NDF, is a strategic move. It is essential to acknowledge the complexity of the violence and corruption in this area. Allowing Iran-backed militias to continue unscrupulous operations like oil, arms, and drug smuggling might seem counterintuitive, but it serves a purpose. By removing U.S. forces from Iran-backed territories, we place ourselves on the high ground, and allow Iran to accelerate corruption between existing militia fault lines in the valley, leading them to collapse under their own infighting.

IV. Balancing Strength and Diplomacy

This approach requires a balance between military strength and diplomatic assertiveness. Recent attacks on U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq reflect strategic and diplomatic failures by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea, and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski.

In March 2023, Ambassador Shea launched a program to deliver solar panels to southern Lebanon -- they arrived at the height of the Israel-Hamas war in October and shipped directly to Lebanese Hezbollah. In September 2023, Ambassador Romanowski launched a ten-month women's studies program, where she herself taught women’s and gender studies in Iraq… which tended to spill into promoting radical western liberal thought such as transgenders in bathrooms, etc. Iranian backed forces, along with the Iraqi public, were insulted by Ambassador Romanowski and decided it was the perfect time to launch an assault against Israel and U.S. interests in Iraq. With the groundwork laid, the trigger was Jake Sullivan orchestrating an even prisoner swap between the U.S. and Iran, while releasing $6 billion sanctioned funds to the Regime. Iran knew the time was right to create regional chaos. Of note, Iran bought a batch of SU-23 fighter jets from Russia in the fall of 2023 -- the first fighter jet purchase for Iran since the 1980s -- an early Christmas present from Jake Sullivan.

Conclusion: Regional Stability and Future Prospects

If the United States adopts this alternative concept as a long-term strategy, regional stability for Israel and our allies will flourish, while our enemies will grow exhausted under their own destruction. Countering Iran's influence demands a multifaceted approach that combines military strength, strategic positioning, and diplomatic assertion. By fortifying key positions, abandoning failed strategies, and addressing the root causes of instability, the United States can effectively counter Iran's efforts to transform the region into its own personal hellhole. Erbil, Iraq, is a uniquely formidable stronghold that creates a strategic balance for the U.S. against Iran. U.S. forces in Jordan will provide security for Israel and send a message to the region that the U.S. rewards good behavior by standing with its allies. Finally, confining the delusionally violent and corrupt Iran-backed militias will advance the current rot stretching from Tehran to Beirut, leading to their ultimate self-imposed collapse.

Courtland Sykes served in the U.S. Navy following the September 11, 2001 attacks and served until January 2011. His military commands included the USS Bonhomme Richard, SEAL Team 5, Navy Special Warfare Unit 3, and the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Peter Navarro’s Substack account, including all individual article posts, are temporarily being handled and managed independently of him.

If you want to support Peter in his fight on behalf of our Constitution, unpaid subscribers can convert to paid, and paid subscribers can always try to share his posts with friends.