Dr. Navarro: Your analysis Posts are some of my favorites to read. I know you are not giving personal financial advice, but I trust your observations. I sense you understand world economics and are a truth-teller. Thanks for your courage and all you do for us American people.
Mike, trying to decipher his meta message "next week should see a downward trend, but it's the following week you want to watch..." as I try to form a strategy to all but GET OUT of the market and into cash. I, too know he doesn't offer personal financial advice, but sometimes I wish he would!
It is challenging. Paid money managers give advice, but if wrong, they still get paid. Over the years I have been influenced by JL Collins (The Simple Path To Wealth) by investing in Total Market ETFs and riding out the ups and downs of the market. Over the long run the return has been good. I am not sure that is the strategy for me in 2024. I am convinced Government policies could be intentionally to our detriment. Thus, I don’t invest any new monies in the market but look for short-term CDs around 5% until I see what happens in 2024 elections. So, cash if king for now. Now, since I am old and have benefitted from gains in past, I can’t just cash out without tax consequences. So much to consider for sure. We just have to decide if we want to navigate on our own or pay a consultant.
A BIG DOWNFALL IN GOOD OLE AMERICAN CRAFTMANSHIP IN NEARLY EVERYTHING WE BUY AND IVE NOTICED THAT IN PEOPLE ALSO SO THE MAIN OBJECTIVE QUIT BUYING SELL OUT CCP CRAP BOYCOTT EVERYTHING MADE IN COMMUNIST CHINA NOW
Merry Christmas Peter! As a self-described technician, trends aren’t the only thing we watch for. Divergences - how much different segments of the markets confirm or disagree amongst each other - and sentiment also offer clues what’s going on under the hood of the market, and both offer interesting insights. Divergences are all over the place, and lately the Dow Industrials are leading the indices higher. Of course, the Magnificent Seven are doing the heavy lifting for the broad market. Those seven stocks comprise 30% of the entire S&P 500 now, and have accounted for virtually all of the gains YTD versus the other 493 components, which have contributed closer to bupkis. Meanwhile, sentiment is off the charts enthusiastic, which is typically seen near market extremes. I’m assured by the strategist types that the stock markets Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio has expanded all year without seeing any gains in earnings. In other words the “P” has risen while the “E” has stagnated - not a good sign. 2024 promises to be a WILD ride in every area, and not in a good way...
WE THE PEOPLES OF EARTH UNITE WITH GOD AND LIKE MINDED WARRIORS WE HAVE THE RIGHTS TO DEFEND OURSELVES FROM EVIL TREASONOUS SQUATS AND WE HAVE THE RIGHTS TO SHUT EM DOWN AND CHARGE THESE CRIMINALS, REMEMBER WE OWN THE GOVT., THE GOVT NOR GLOBALLASSED OWN US,,,WE THE PEOPLE -- IN GOD WE TRUST -- ONE NATION UNDER GOD. THANK YOU PETER NAVARRO
Good article! Thanks. Where I live in central WI, I watch food prices and the inflation rate of many items came down a fair amount, but I suspect much of that is due to seasonal abundance after harvests. Still most of our Thanksgiving Day dinner groceries cost about 25% over last year. The turkey was about 10% more. I watch the one Car dealership in the County not selling much now. I also live near a large RV (mostly travel trailers) dealer that looks like it has barely moved anything this year and the lot has filled with an abundance of new models. There are a lot of vacation homes, parks with camp sites and retirement small homes here, so there had always been a lot of sales of travel trailers and Trucks to pull them. Not so this year. Gasoline prices have dropped to $2.99 and even have pushed down to $2.69/gal regular. That indicates a fairly big drop in travel. We, and others we know try to limit trips to when we need a big grocery shopping and try not to go because we need just a couple things. I have been though a few recessions and am used to becoming efficient in travel and stocking up (grub stakeing for winter). Lower inflation really means the prices just rise slower, and as the weakening value of the dollar closing businesses and fewer goods on shelves means prices will likely stay up. (except for TVs. Does anyone need another TV?)
Buyers are still Bullish on SPY and technicals are mostly positive. Do overbought signals apply when price is climbing the 20 MA? Earnings announcements could change all that but aren't a lot of S&P co.s making earnings off investments? If so, the "correction" will be very ugly. Thanks for all you have done, what you are doing and what you will be doing. Thanks for the free enrollment.
Dr. Navarro: Your analysis Posts are some of my favorites to read. I know you are not giving personal financial advice, but I trust your observations. I sense you understand world economics and are a truth-teller. Thanks for your courage and all you do for us American people.
Mike, trying to decipher his meta message "next week should see a downward trend, but it's the following week you want to watch..." as I try to form a strategy to all but GET OUT of the market and into cash. I, too know he doesn't offer personal financial advice, but sometimes I wish he would!
It is challenging. Paid money managers give advice, but if wrong, they still get paid. Over the years I have been influenced by JL Collins (The Simple Path To Wealth) by investing in Total Market ETFs and riding out the ups and downs of the market. Over the long run the return has been good. I am not sure that is the strategy for me in 2024. I am convinced Government policies could be intentionally to our detriment. Thus, I don’t invest any new monies in the market but look for short-term CDs around 5% until I see what happens in 2024 elections. So, cash if king for now. Now, since I am old and have benefitted from gains in past, I can’t just cash out without tax consequences. So much to consider for sure. We just have to decide if we want to navigate on our own or pay a consultant.
A BIG DOWNFALL IN GOOD OLE AMERICAN CRAFTMANSHIP IN NEARLY EVERYTHING WE BUY AND IVE NOTICED THAT IN PEOPLE ALSO SO THE MAIN OBJECTIVE QUIT BUYING SELL OUT CCP CRAP BOYCOTT EVERYTHING MADE IN COMMUNIST CHINA NOW
Merry Christmas Peter! As a self-described technician, trends aren’t the only thing we watch for. Divergences - how much different segments of the markets confirm or disagree amongst each other - and sentiment also offer clues what’s going on under the hood of the market, and both offer interesting insights. Divergences are all over the place, and lately the Dow Industrials are leading the indices higher. Of course, the Magnificent Seven are doing the heavy lifting for the broad market. Those seven stocks comprise 30% of the entire S&P 500 now, and have accounted for virtually all of the gains YTD versus the other 493 components, which have contributed closer to bupkis. Meanwhile, sentiment is off the charts enthusiastic, which is typically seen near market extremes. I’m assured by the strategist types that the stock markets Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio has expanded all year without seeing any gains in earnings. In other words the “P” has risen while the “E” has stagnated - not a good sign. 2024 promises to be a WILD ride in every area, and not in a good way...
WE THE PEOPLES OF EARTH UNITE WITH GOD AND LIKE MINDED WARRIORS WE HAVE THE RIGHTS TO DEFEND OURSELVES FROM EVIL TREASONOUS SQUATS AND WE HAVE THE RIGHTS TO SHUT EM DOWN AND CHARGE THESE CRIMINALS, REMEMBER WE OWN THE GOVT., THE GOVT NOR GLOBALLASSED OWN US,,,WE THE PEOPLE -- IN GOD WE TRUST -- ONE NATION UNDER GOD. THANK YOU PETER NAVARRO
Good article! Thanks. Where I live in central WI, I watch food prices and the inflation rate of many items came down a fair amount, but I suspect much of that is due to seasonal abundance after harvests. Still most of our Thanksgiving Day dinner groceries cost about 25% over last year. The turkey was about 10% more. I watch the one Car dealership in the County not selling much now. I also live near a large RV (mostly travel trailers) dealer that looks like it has barely moved anything this year and the lot has filled with an abundance of new models. There are a lot of vacation homes, parks with camp sites and retirement small homes here, so there had always been a lot of sales of travel trailers and Trucks to pull them. Not so this year. Gasoline prices have dropped to $2.99 and even have pushed down to $2.69/gal regular. That indicates a fairly big drop in travel. We, and others we know try to limit trips to when we need a big grocery shopping and try not to go because we need just a couple things. I have been though a few recessions and am used to becoming efficient in travel and stocking up (grub stakeing for winter). Lower inflation really means the prices just rise slower, and as the weakening value of the dollar closing businesses and fewer goods on shelves means prices will likely stay up. (except for TVs. Does anyone need another TV?)
This eight-week rise is what usually happens this time of year.
Buyers are still Bullish on SPY and technicals are mostly positive. Do overbought signals apply when price is climbing the 20 MA? Earnings announcements could change all that but aren't a lot of S&P co.s making earnings off investments? If so, the "correction" will be very ugly. Thanks for all you have done, what you are doing and what you will be doing. Thanks for the free enrollment.
Merry Christmas Peter
Dr Navarro,
I trust your judgment- can’t say that for many these days.
The market is artificially stimulated. A seductive lie.
Thanks for your analysis. Merry Christmas to you and your family.