UNITE WITH GOD AND LIKED MINDED AGAINST ALL EVILS --- Just a Reminder queer abominations or whatever they call themselves Are NOT Like Minded That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world. 🇺🇸 UNITE WE “The people – the people – are the rightful masters of both congresses and courts – not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who pervert it.”....THIS WILL HAPPEN TO THIS EVIL WORLD BY GODS WORDS UNITE WITH GOD FOR A BEAUTIFUL RIGHTEOUS EVERLASTING LIFE HE CREATETED ALL AND GAVE US FREEDOM OF CHOICE🙏
That's because it fundamentally is. Wall Street has become progressively more disconnected from Main Street over the past few decades, to the point where Wall Street sometimes forgets that Main Street even exists.
The biggest problem with the Fed's rate hike strategy is that it has not had much if any discernible effect on "core" inflation--especially not in the PCE Price Index which is the metric the Fed prefers over the CPI.
Core inflation per the PCEPI has remained in the same band around 5% ±0.5% since before the Fed began boosting the federal funds rate. It was only in May that core inflation per the CPI broke below the band around 6%±0.5% where it has been also since before the Fed began boosting the federal funds rate. We won't know for a couple more weeks yet whether the PCEPI will show core inflation breaking below its band in May.
If you look at the same metrics the Fed uses, the argument that the Fed's rate hikes have pushed inflation down cannot be supported by the data.
However I will add that the next major front to truly spook the U.S and it’s Western allies in this ongoing conflict and competition conflict (Read pissing contest) will be fought on the economic front of the present NATO/Russia conflict.
We need to watch for the possible acceleration in the sell off of U.S treasuries, held by Russia to be sold through proxies, as well and most worryingly an accelerated sell down by the Chinese of the treasuries they and Hong Kong hold.
I understand that it is broadly accepted, that for every USD$500billion in Treasuries sold down in such an event, a sudden liquidation of position that the impact is a further increase to the underlying U.S Fed Funds Rate of between 0.125 and 0.165%, when considering the impact of such, despite the U.S Treasury market able to absorb such a volume as USD$500billion, that if the Chinese sold down theirs and the Hong Kong position that they would be sitting upon a circa USD$1.155 Trillion (USD$895 Trillion and HKTerritory USD$260Billion) liquidation at which point the spike in the FFR would be akin to a potential unplanned 25 - 35 point basis point rate hike, add the known Russian Treasuries retained Holdings of circa USD$400 Billion, that in order to liquidate might undergo a “swap with the PBOC” in order the transaction completes and the possible FFR basis point rate hike jumps to a potential 50 - 60 in response to the sell down of a USD$1.55 Trillion quantum.
Obviously countering such a play is the demonstrable loss of value that would be incurred by the sellers liquidating such a position.
However tempering that position is, just how motivated both nations might be to want to strike an economic blow at a time the U.S, European, Japanese and Western Economies, more specifically their respective Central Banks, GSIBS and Main Street Retail Banks together with their other financial institutions are facing liquidity issues and as we know are in the main likely trading from a position of insolvency.
Also countering the negative argument against possiblt such a trigger being pulled are the obvious negative parallel’s….
U.S Treasuries holders in the present environment have suffered and continue to suffer significant paper losses given the FFR rates now prevailing.
The overt hostility, bellicose behaviour, belligerence by the U.S, Europe and their allies as demonstrated almost pathologically on a daily basis toward both nations, certainly the hardline U.S foreign policy is not endearing either Nation holding between them the largest quantum of U.S Treasuries, seconded only by the Japanese State with the rest, save the U.S Atlantic cousins a distant 4th and beyond.
Equally of note is the sizeable holdings of USD Treasuries by BRICS+ Nations and that of both the known applicants and aspirant nations wishing to join BRICS+ or the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) which if similar were to occasion could create a real and unexpected financial Armageddon impacting the U.S.
That is not to say such a dump will occasion, however it would be remiss for the U.S not to at the very least endeavour to forestall such a move.
As stated and is well known, whilst the U.S Treasury market could likely absorb such, it would still necessitate, in order to offset further money printing by the Fed, likely equal to the value being liquidated to be recovered when the Treasury’s are offered to market.
This is where the potential real issue lies buried, indeed evolves a double whammy impact on the Fed, the likely resulting selling back to the market of Treasuries would likely act as the catalyst to tip what remains of the U.S and Western, Japanese Banks, via the resulting liquidity crisis.
After all, what depositor, with any modicum of intellect or nouse, would feel inclined to retain funds on deposit at GSIB or Main Street Bank rate offerings when the smart money would have to be on taking your funds and transferring the same acquiring U.S Treasuries paying presently a significantly higher rate than the aforementioned Banks are offering, whilst also gaining in sheer quality and duration of return able to be locked in, obviously commensurate with the term of Treasury note acquired…. tempting indeed and a bona fide additional layer of risk to the Financial system liquidity position.
The fallout of such a move would be exacerbated inflation and elevated interest rate pressures likely to persist.
Such inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, with the resulting and heightened risk of bank failures could well bring forward the decline of the USD as the Global Reserve Currency.
This potential mayhem bought about by the U.S Neocons upon themselves, due their bellicose and belligerent behaviour and hubris, they’re open disdain of U.S Treasury advice, when warned off terminating Russia’s access to the SWIFT international banking transfer system, further exacerbated by the announced intention to simply appropriate sans steal, Russia’s circa USD$300Billion of U.S Treasuries, a good chunk of the Russian states Foreign Reserves…..
Add to any fallout the likely Contagion and Counter Party Risk spill over, amongst the U.S partners in crime, in this fiasco, as well as many simply caught up in the fallout, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand etc… and the potential for disaster is and their member state banks and financial institutions.
As stated support around the globe intensifying, many cognisant of what Russia faces, is trying to achieve and that in trying to achieve is and likely will be ushering in a more equitable, balanced world, a world based upon nation states going about their business, a world predicate upon mutual trust, understanding, shared values, equanimity, unambiguous interpretation of international law, conventions and norms, individual nation sovereignty, international institutions beholden to no single nation nor agenda, finally doing what they were founded and conceived of to facilitate.
Such international bodies such as the U.N, WHO, ICC etc… no longer politicised or subject to ideological capture and best of all, the multiparty system backed up with and by what constitutes and real money, money backed by tangible and real value, gold and other resources of value, commodities like oil, silver, gold etc… vs the meets every measurable metric that defines what money actually is, not the debt backed monetary system that is predominant and has prevailed for so long ex the current financial diaspora, a system backed with nothing but a printing press, the inevitable wealth destroying and cyclic to the point of being contrived, inflation and of course the oft experienced cycles of recession
UNITE WITH GOD AND LIKED MINDED AGAINST ALL EVILS --- Just a Reminder queer abominations or whatever they call themselves Are NOT Like Minded That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world. 🇺🇸 UNITE WE “The people – the people – are the rightful masters of both congresses and courts – not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who pervert it.”....THIS WILL HAPPEN TO THIS EVIL WORLD BY GODS WORDS UNITE WITH GOD FOR A BEAUTIFUL RIGHTEOUS EVERLASTING LIFE HE CREATETED ALL AND GAVE US FREEDOM OF CHOICE🙏
Seems like the stock market is just a puddle of money being played in by the big boys while we schlubs get screwed at the supermarket.
That's because it fundamentally is. Wall Street has become progressively more disconnected from Main Street over the past few decades, to the point where Wall Street sometimes forgets that Main Street even exists.
Biden not looking too good these days. May not be able to continue to destroy our country. At least I hope not.
But are you for the Kamel as his successor?
Peter, you are always on target! Thanks!
The biggest problem with the Fed's rate hike strategy is that it has not had much if any discernible effect on "core" inflation--especially not in the PCE Price Index which is the metric the Fed prefers over the CPI.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/another-step-backwards-pce-report
Core inflation per the PCEPI has remained in the same band around 5% ±0.5% since before the Fed began boosting the federal funds rate. It was only in May that core inflation per the CPI broke below the band around 6%±0.5% where it has been also since before the Fed began boosting the federal funds rate. We won't know for a couple more weeks yet whether the PCEPI will show core inflation breaking below its band in May.
If you look at the same metrics the Fed uses, the argument that the Fed's rate hikes have pushed inflation down cannot be supported by the data.
Fabulous piece Peter,
However I will add that the next major front to truly spook the U.S and it’s Western allies in this ongoing conflict and competition conflict (Read pissing contest) will be fought on the economic front of the present NATO/Russia conflict.
We need to watch for the possible acceleration in the sell off of U.S treasuries, held by Russia to be sold through proxies, as well and most worryingly an accelerated sell down by the Chinese of the treasuries they and Hong Kong hold.
I understand that it is broadly accepted, that for every USD$500billion in Treasuries sold down in such an event, a sudden liquidation of position that the impact is a further increase to the underlying U.S Fed Funds Rate of between 0.125 and 0.165%, when considering the impact of such, despite the U.S Treasury market able to absorb such a volume as USD$500billion, that if the Chinese sold down theirs and the Hong Kong position that they would be sitting upon a circa USD$1.155 Trillion (USD$895 Trillion and HKTerritory USD$260Billion) liquidation at which point the spike in the FFR would be akin to a potential unplanned 25 - 35 point basis point rate hike, add the known Russian Treasuries retained Holdings of circa USD$400 Billion, that in order to liquidate might undergo a “swap with the PBOC” in order the transaction completes and the possible FFR basis point rate hike jumps to a potential 50 - 60 in response to the sell down of a USD$1.55 Trillion quantum.
Obviously countering such a play is the demonstrable loss of value that would be incurred by the sellers liquidating such a position.
However tempering that position is, just how motivated both nations might be to want to strike an economic blow at a time the U.S, European, Japanese and Western Economies, more specifically their respective Central Banks, GSIBS and Main Street Retail Banks together with their other financial institutions are facing liquidity issues and as we know are in the main likely trading from a position of insolvency.
Also countering the negative argument against possiblt such a trigger being pulled are the obvious negative parallel’s….
U.S Treasuries holders in the present environment have suffered and continue to suffer significant paper losses given the FFR rates now prevailing.
The overt hostility, bellicose behaviour, belligerence by the U.S, Europe and their allies as demonstrated almost pathologically on a daily basis toward both nations, certainly the hardline U.S foreign policy is not endearing either Nation holding between them the largest quantum of U.S Treasuries, seconded only by the Japanese State with the rest, save the U.S Atlantic cousins a distant 4th and beyond.
Equally of note is the sizeable holdings of USD Treasuries by BRICS+ Nations and that of both the known applicants and aspirant nations wishing to join BRICS+ or the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) which if similar were to occasion could create a real and unexpected financial Armageddon impacting the U.S.
That is not to say such a dump will occasion, however it would be remiss for the U.S not to at the very least endeavour to forestall such a move.
As stated and is well known, whilst the U.S Treasury market could likely absorb such, it would still necessitate, in order to offset further money printing by the Fed, likely equal to the value being liquidated to be recovered when the Treasury’s are offered to market.
This is where the potential real issue lies buried, indeed evolves a double whammy impact on the Fed, the likely resulting selling back to the market of Treasuries would likely act as the catalyst to tip what remains of the U.S and Western, Japanese Banks, via the resulting liquidity crisis.
After all, what depositor, with any modicum of intellect or nouse, would feel inclined to retain funds on deposit at GSIB or Main Street Bank rate offerings when the smart money would have to be on taking your funds and transferring the same acquiring U.S Treasuries paying presently a significantly higher rate than the aforementioned Banks are offering, whilst also gaining in sheer quality and duration of return able to be locked in, obviously commensurate with the term of Treasury note acquired…. tempting indeed and a bona fide additional layer of risk to the Financial system liquidity position.
The fallout of such a move would be exacerbated inflation and elevated interest rate pressures likely to persist.
Such inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, with the resulting and heightened risk of bank failures could well bring forward the decline of the USD as the Global Reserve Currency.
This potential mayhem bought about by the U.S Neocons upon themselves, due their bellicose and belligerent behaviour and hubris, they’re open disdain of U.S Treasury advice, when warned off terminating Russia’s access to the SWIFT international banking transfer system, further exacerbated by the announced intention to simply appropriate sans steal, Russia’s circa USD$300Billion of U.S Treasuries, a good chunk of the Russian states Foreign Reserves…..
Add to any fallout the likely Contagion and Counter Party Risk spill over, amongst the U.S partners in crime, in this fiasco, as well as many simply caught up in the fallout, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand etc… and the potential for disaster is and their member state banks and financial institutions.
As stated support around the globe intensifying, many cognisant of what Russia faces, is trying to achieve and that in trying to achieve is and likely will be ushering in a more equitable, balanced world, a world based upon nation states going about their business, a world predicate upon mutual trust, understanding, shared values, equanimity, unambiguous interpretation of international law, conventions and norms, individual nation sovereignty, international institutions beholden to no single nation nor agenda, finally doing what they were founded and conceived of to facilitate.
Such international bodies such as the U.N, WHO, ICC etc… no longer politicised or subject to ideological capture and best of all, the multiparty system backed up with and by what constitutes and real money, money backed by tangible and real value, gold and other resources of value, commodities like oil, silver, gold etc… vs the meets every measurable metric that defines what money actually is, not the debt backed monetary system that is predominant and has prevailed for so long ex the current financial diaspora, a system backed with nothing but a printing press, the inevitable wealth destroying and cyclic to the point of being contrived, inflation and of course the oft experienced cycles of recession