I think China has a strategy of letting the US fumble its leadership. And since a fool like Biden is the puppet in charge, he'll make this so easy for our enemy.
Many other geopolitical strategists have said that China will need to attack the US within the next 2 or 3 years to have a chance, before they go into severe demographic decline (the Thuclydies trap--I think I have the correct spelling. If not, my apologies to his Greek descendants). I fear that Biden may stumble before then, making their resulting attack more surprising. But I don't know how that will play out, except that I would be more surprised if an attack happens after Biden leaves the White House.
Biden is the perfect man in the White House, from the perspective of China.
Our military has been continuously weakened by the biden regime. Giving billions of dollars worth of hi-tech military equipment to the taliban, giving billions of taxpayer dollars(which should go for US defense) and hi-tech military equipment to ukraine, selling our strategic oil supply to china, selling our nuclear submarines to Australia, and destroying any incentive to join the US military while allowing a china spy balloon to gather information on our sensitive military installations is NOT a sane strategy for national security.
That perspective about how the trade deficit with China is large enough to fund their miliitary is scary. Economic health is not just about material prosperity, it is a security concern. If national defense is a goal, then economic health must be, because you can't remain safe without growth.
Regarding this quote:
" ... a Chinese military buildup designed to ... drive America out of Asia."
One can also be concerned that, eventually, the intention is to drive Americans out of America (or to at least subject them to harsh rule). A popular Amazon show comes to mind (The Man in the High Castle) wherein the US lost WWII and was subjected to harsh rule.
THE WHOLE DEMONICRAT REGIME OF TERRORISTOCRATS AND THEY PUSH CLIMATE CHANGE,,,,THOUGHTS TO PONDER!!! CLIMATE CHANGE IS MAKING OCEANS RISE AT ALARMING RATES & LEVELS IS WHY 0bamanus is living on coastlines, b gates and the wealthy live on the coastlines AND THE EVIL CORRUPT DEMONICRATS PUSH CLIMATE CHANGE🤪
The “policy” of desired “ healthy competition” expressed by Yellen is not in reality “policy “ at all. If you take into account the entirety of what has played out since election 2016 , Kavanaugh, impeachment, unrest, the Squad, election fraud, Biden, Baloon, Ukraine, etc. etc., “healthy “ has nothing to do with it. Simply, the loss of confidence in our Constitution as given us by our Founders has led to assuming the role of replacing it. The Utopian illusion that plagues those who gave up and sold sends them to seek what cannot be found and so they must project it . In my opinion this is in reality Yellen’ s “policy”.
China's chance has come and gone, and it failed utterly at making its people wealthy before they got old
Now they are facing economic and demographic decline. Their real estate markets remain toxic two years after Evergrande's cataclysmic collapse. Their consumer demand is shrinking. Their exports are shrinking. Companies have been rotating their fabrication facilities and factories out of China for at least the last five years.
With the economic narrative turning against the CCP, they will need another narrative to maintain their hold on power.
Perversely, this is not the Thucydides Trap many have feared. Rather, China is likely to trigger a war not out of their strength but if their weakness.
Seriously Peter, whilst from an economic sans trade perspective you are correct that trade favours China, I do not agree or come close to agreeing with you or Mearshimer, that war is inevitable.
Why should it be, on close examination the conflict rhetoric has only come from one side, the sole protagonist, the U.S.
Remarks, the actions of deploying naval, air and land based military assets to Taiwan have been the cause of escalating anti China sentiment, throw in the disparaging verbal attacks, the ridiculous and contrived Spy Balloon episode, coinciding the distraction from the congressional Hearings into J6, Hunter Biden, the absurd attacks former President Trump and the other issues that were considered injurious to the Biden White House and you understand the entire myth of the Chinese “Spy” balloon saga, in short an embarrassment to the U.S, I guarantee the pilot that “took out the balloon on that daring and dangerous mission” fair crapped his flight suit knowing he was going up against such a dangerous adversary as the “balloon festooned with Spyware the size of your downtown or Greyhound Bus” with the World watching….such a clear threat to U.S security…. not!
Lamentable as that might be, perhaps the full disclosure ought be just why indeed so many jobs from the mid west including that oh so famous town of “Scranton” in Ohio State ended up in China?
I’m sure the Chinese didn’t travel the length and breadth of your nation asking owners and shareholders of the factories shuttered to transfer to China!!
Nope, could the reality actually be the Tax breaks and largesse handed out under Clinton, Bush and Obumhole to owners and Corporates to shutter their factories and relocate to China, certain,y we know China did not offer tax breaks, any other inducement or incentivise the off shoring of American jobs, to China, no, all that was available was a cheap Labour source and that was enough for your American owned corporates and shareholders, seeking greater riches to turn their backs on those who had sustained the nation since the onset post WW1 of the U.S’s own Industrial Revolution and development of true industrial capacity that turned the nation into the greatest manufacturing economy on the planet.
Indeed once this offshoring started, it caught on with all Corporates and owners seemingly playing whack a mole, or beggar thy local and National manufacturing base, simply by getting on a plane to China, meeting with potential suitors able to replace their existing situ as long established it had been in the U.S, all in a bid to squeeze those extra dimes per unit manufactured as profit, in essence you guys, did it to yourselves predicate on nothing more than greed and higher profits resulting from closure onshore and re-establishing offshore in China.
To now blame the Chinese as if somehow they are responsible for this is disingenuous and patently untrue, a fraud and distortion of actuality, the truth and facts as the World understands the facts to be.
Indeed your mates in Europe, even here in my nation of birth and residence New Zealand, across the ditch in Australia, the Japanese, South Koreans, everyone rushed headfirst into China the period 1990 - 2020 eager to get in on the savings, efficiencies and economies of scale, that ostensibly were available and would result from manufacturing in China vs continuing to manufacture with the attendant domestic labour inputs required to maintain localised manufacturing, in other words, to retain domestic Jobs, to ensure rural and small town America, so heavily reliant on the manufacturing jobs, to ensure the survival of the mid west and rust belt cities and towns.
Instead they were thrown to the wolves, despite the many protestations and efforts to save the jobs simply scrapped in pursuit of the extra pennies per unit cost able to be squeezed from Chinese manufacturing.
Hence why I say and make the case it is a stretch to lay the blame at China’s feet, to make them an ogre or boogie man that they clearly are not, or even close to.
It is disturbing the disparaging remarks and rhetoric being so vociferously espoused of late from the highest levels of your government including the clear agitation caused the Chinese by sending high ranking officials to Taiwan, doing so whilst cleaving and underscoring U.S commitment to the acknowledged “One China” policy, in fact everything being done to insult the Chinese government who it must be readily acknowledged has shown great restraint in the face of these provocations, yet further provoked a compliant media, who as if in a chorus line, simply make up or repeat the ridiculous talking points propagated your political leadership, in short, it is as if you guys are on a death wish, living out a fantasy of self destruct, except it’s not just the U.S your hellbent on decimating but the rest of the developed world as well.. certainly if the present Ukraine experience is anything to go by and to be used as the means by which to measure the appropriate outcome of these anti Chinese policies.
Thankfully many of us today are inured to these tactics, to this time worn modus operandi and trope of demonising, vilifying and denigrating your target, then incessantly attacking them predicate the patently false narrative created, a false narrative that is focussed on skewing the facts in order to create the environment and mind set that your populace will by virtue of buy in simply acquiesce and roll over in acceptance unto.
Everyone knows, well those with a semblance of intellect, those not brainwashed the spurious and fraud laced facts that are perpetuated via your crafted mainstream media and equally controlled Soc Media outlets, know that all of the current misguided narrative is really about, that it is representative of the shifting paradigm of superpower dominance, the fact that China is challenging the U.S’s once considered unassailable position as top dog, in short, the end of one empire and the beginning of another, of pre eminence in global politics and leadership changing from the present acknowledged superpower to the rising/new dominant superpower, if indeed it (China) hasn’t already taken top spot, if it has T already surpassed the U.S as defined via a broad range of metrics, from the size and total of the respective economies, through the measure of, GDP, PPI, total Industrial and Manufacturing capacity, size of Military, initiatives and engagements in Space, in Tech, the depth, reach and support of Foreign Policy, quantum and value of in ground Resources, Rare Earths, plus perhaps and notwithstanding the new Hi-Tech era the World is entering into and which in and of itself is perhaps the most important of all represented by the “Chip Race”…
Indeed as we know even without Taiwan, the Chinese who started way back in 1990 to ratchet up their innovation and development in the Tech space, being cognisant and prescient in their attitude to this sector have definitely via their R and D as you know and will be aware, have, “cracked” new technologies, indeed have innovated Quantum Chip production, high tech chip production, virtually everything related and to do with Solar, plus a range of other innovations.
Add their Belt and Road initiative and proposed via the SCO and BRICS+ Gold and Commodities backed Trading Currency to be announced, de-dollarisation, the number of nation states queuing up to both join BRICS+, the SCO, who are de-dollarising their trade settlements and you get the picture, the true reality of what is driving the rhetoric, conflating alleged Chinese infractions with real politik, the real agenda by the. U.S to cling to a weakening and all but self destroyed and short lived period of dominance, of empire.
Perhaps in being more accepting, seeking pro at ways to work with and within the new multipolar world China is ushering in vs the “Rules (Yours) Based Order” so keenly being preserved, your nation might retain its position, indeed enhance its position, forestalling what on the face of it seems all but inevitable now, I’d like to think you’d at least led the W.H and State Dept, that you’d have the sense and nouse to try, why not, what could possibly be worse than adopting a conciliatory yet firm position underscoring that which is important the U.S whilst acknowledging their position, somewhere in the midst of it all will be found common ground v the one sided enmity that is all to prevalent of late… an enmity that sadly might result in the atypical U.S outcome of death, destruction, displacement and debasement, time me thinks to try a new script. Where’s the harm…
China is taking advantage of our inept leadership . Yellin bowing & Binken ‘s co- towing to China will weaken us to the point of no return. The only thing to do is vote by the millions.
Biden et al fit the descriiption of totalitarian mass leaders of Anna Arendt: "The totalitarian mass leaders based their propaganda on the correct psychological assumption that under such conditions one could make people believe the most fantastic statements one day and trust that if the next day they were given irrefutable proof of their falsehood they would take refuge in cynicism instead of deserting the leaders who had lied to them, they would protest that they had known all along that the statement was a lie and would admire the leaders for their tactical cleverness.
Stooges, crooks, and usurpers.
blinkin idiots
CCP Court Eunuchs: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/tiananmen-square-massacre-cultural-revolution
I think China has a strategy of letting the US fumble its leadership. And since a fool like Biden is the puppet in charge, he'll make this so easy for our enemy.
Many other geopolitical strategists have said that China will need to attack the US within the next 2 or 3 years to have a chance, before they go into severe demographic decline (the Thuclydies trap--I think I have the correct spelling. If not, my apologies to his Greek descendants). I fear that Biden may stumble before then, making their resulting attack more surprising. But I don't know how that will play out, except that I would be more surprised if an attack happens after Biden leaves the White House.
Biden is the perfect man in the White House, from the perspective of China.
Our military has been continuously weakened by the biden regime. Giving billions of dollars worth of hi-tech military equipment to the taliban, giving billions of taxpayer dollars(which should go for US defense) and hi-tech military equipment to ukraine, selling our strategic oil supply to china, selling our nuclear submarines to Australia, and destroying any incentive to join the US military while allowing a china spy balloon to gather information on our sensitive military installations is NOT a sane strategy for national security.
FOLLOW THE MONEY!
Sadly, true and scary.
Obama started it . . . in more ways than one.
chUCK Fina
Thanks for this insight, Professor Navarro.
That perspective about how the trade deficit with China is large enough to fund their miliitary is scary. Economic health is not just about material prosperity, it is a security concern. If national defense is a goal, then economic health must be, because you can't remain safe without growth.
Regarding this quote:
" ... a Chinese military buildup designed to ... drive America out of Asia."
One can also be concerned that, eventually, the intention is to drive Americans out of America (or to at least subject them to harsh rule). A popular Amazon show comes to mind (The Man in the High Castle) wherein the US lost WWII and was subjected to harsh rule.
Biden and all his minions are destroying our country.
USURPER joe
Pedo Joe, ditzy Kamala, stooges Blinken and Sullivan...every single one in this administration is corrupt, inept, and incompetent.
THE WHOLE DEMONICRAT REGIME OF TERRORISTOCRATS AND THEY PUSH CLIMATE CHANGE,,,,THOUGHTS TO PONDER!!! CLIMATE CHANGE IS MAKING OCEANS RISE AT ALARMING RATES & LEVELS IS WHY 0bamanus is living on coastlines, b gates and the wealthy live on the coastlines AND THE EVIL CORRUPT DEMONICRATS PUSH CLIMATE CHANGE🤪
On one hand Trump decouples, isolates and weakens China, on the other Biden engages, accepts and strengthens China.
Both roads lead to war.
The question is which China do we want to fight?
A weakened China
chUCK Fina
The “policy” of desired “ healthy competition” expressed by Yellen is not in reality “policy “ at all. If you take into account the entirety of what has played out since election 2016 , Kavanaugh, impeachment, unrest, the Squad, election fraud, Biden, Baloon, Ukraine, etc. etc., “healthy “ has nothing to do with it. Simply, the loss of confidence in our Constitution as given us by our Founders has led to assuming the role of replacing it. The Utopian illusion that plagues those who gave up and sold sends them to seek what cannot be found and so they must project it . In my opinion this is in reality Yellen’ s “policy”.
China is dangerous, but not because it is an emerging power.
China is dangerous because it is a declining one.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/and-then-reality-set-in
China's chance has come and gone, and it failed utterly at making its people wealthy before they got old
Now they are facing economic and demographic decline. Their real estate markets remain toxic two years after Evergrande's cataclysmic collapse. Their consumer demand is shrinking. Their exports are shrinking. Companies have been rotating their fabrication facilities and factories out of China for at least the last five years.
With the economic narrative turning against the CCP, they will need another narrative to maintain their hold on power.
Perversely, this is not the Thucydides Trap many have feared. Rather, China is likely to trigger a war not out of their strength but if their weakness.
Seriously Peter, whilst from an economic sans trade perspective you are correct that trade favours China, I do not agree or come close to agreeing with you or Mearshimer, that war is inevitable.
Why should it be, on close examination the conflict rhetoric has only come from one side, the sole protagonist, the U.S.
Remarks, the actions of deploying naval, air and land based military assets to Taiwan have been the cause of escalating anti China sentiment, throw in the disparaging verbal attacks, the ridiculous and contrived Spy Balloon episode, coinciding the distraction from the congressional Hearings into J6, Hunter Biden, the absurd attacks former President Trump and the other issues that were considered injurious to the Biden White House and you understand the entire myth of the Chinese “Spy” balloon saga, in short an embarrassment to the U.S, I guarantee the pilot that “took out the balloon on that daring and dangerous mission” fair crapped his flight suit knowing he was going up against such a dangerous adversary as the “balloon festooned with Spyware the size of your downtown or Greyhound Bus” with the World watching….such a clear threat to U.S security…. not!
Lamentable as that might be, perhaps the full disclosure ought be just why indeed so many jobs from the mid west including that oh so famous town of “Scranton” in Ohio State ended up in China?
I’m sure the Chinese didn’t travel the length and breadth of your nation asking owners and shareholders of the factories shuttered to transfer to China!!
Nope, could the reality actually be the Tax breaks and largesse handed out under Clinton, Bush and Obumhole to owners and Corporates to shutter their factories and relocate to China, certain,y we know China did not offer tax breaks, any other inducement or incentivise the off shoring of American jobs, to China, no, all that was available was a cheap Labour source and that was enough for your American owned corporates and shareholders, seeking greater riches to turn their backs on those who had sustained the nation since the onset post WW1 of the U.S’s own Industrial Revolution and development of true industrial capacity that turned the nation into the greatest manufacturing economy on the planet.
Indeed once this offshoring started, it caught on with all Corporates and owners seemingly playing whack a mole, or beggar thy local and National manufacturing base, simply by getting on a plane to China, meeting with potential suitors able to replace their existing situ as long established it had been in the U.S, all in a bid to squeeze those extra dimes per unit manufactured as profit, in essence you guys, did it to yourselves predicate on nothing more than greed and higher profits resulting from closure onshore and re-establishing offshore in China.
To now blame the Chinese as if somehow they are responsible for this is disingenuous and patently untrue, a fraud and distortion of actuality, the truth and facts as the World understands the facts to be.
Indeed your mates in Europe, even here in my nation of birth and residence New Zealand, across the ditch in Australia, the Japanese, South Koreans, everyone rushed headfirst into China the period 1990 - 2020 eager to get in on the savings, efficiencies and economies of scale, that ostensibly were available and would result from manufacturing in China vs continuing to manufacture with the attendant domestic labour inputs required to maintain localised manufacturing, in other words, to retain domestic Jobs, to ensure rural and small town America, so heavily reliant on the manufacturing jobs, to ensure the survival of the mid west and rust belt cities and towns.
Instead they were thrown to the wolves, despite the many protestations and efforts to save the jobs simply scrapped in pursuit of the extra pennies per unit cost able to be squeezed from Chinese manufacturing.
Hence why I say and make the case it is a stretch to lay the blame at China’s feet, to make them an ogre or boogie man that they clearly are not, or even close to.
It is disturbing the disparaging remarks and rhetoric being so vociferously espoused of late from the highest levels of your government including the clear agitation caused the Chinese by sending high ranking officials to Taiwan, doing so whilst cleaving and underscoring U.S commitment to the acknowledged “One China” policy, in fact everything being done to insult the Chinese government who it must be readily acknowledged has shown great restraint in the face of these provocations, yet further provoked a compliant media, who as if in a chorus line, simply make up or repeat the ridiculous talking points propagated your political leadership, in short, it is as if you guys are on a death wish, living out a fantasy of self destruct, except it’s not just the U.S your hellbent on decimating but the rest of the developed world as well.. certainly if the present Ukraine experience is anything to go by and to be used as the means by which to measure the appropriate outcome of these anti Chinese policies.
Thankfully many of us today are inured to these tactics, to this time worn modus operandi and trope of demonising, vilifying and denigrating your target, then incessantly attacking them predicate the patently false narrative created, a false narrative that is focussed on skewing the facts in order to create the environment and mind set that your populace will by virtue of buy in simply acquiesce and roll over in acceptance unto.
Everyone knows, well those with a semblance of intellect, those not brainwashed the spurious and fraud laced facts that are perpetuated via your crafted mainstream media and equally controlled Soc Media outlets, know that all of the current misguided narrative is really about, that it is representative of the shifting paradigm of superpower dominance, the fact that China is challenging the U.S’s once considered unassailable position as top dog, in short, the end of one empire and the beginning of another, of pre eminence in global politics and leadership changing from the present acknowledged superpower to the rising/new dominant superpower, if indeed it (China) hasn’t already taken top spot, if it has T already surpassed the U.S as defined via a broad range of metrics, from the size and total of the respective economies, through the measure of, GDP, PPI, total Industrial and Manufacturing capacity, size of Military, initiatives and engagements in Space, in Tech, the depth, reach and support of Foreign Policy, quantum and value of in ground Resources, Rare Earths, plus perhaps and notwithstanding the new Hi-Tech era the World is entering into and which in and of itself is perhaps the most important of all represented by the “Chip Race”…
Indeed as we know even without Taiwan, the Chinese who started way back in 1990 to ratchet up their innovation and development in the Tech space, being cognisant and prescient in their attitude to this sector have definitely via their R and D as you know and will be aware, have, “cracked” new technologies, indeed have innovated Quantum Chip production, high tech chip production, virtually everything related and to do with Solar, plus a range of other innovations.
Add their Belt and Road initiative and proposed via the SCO and BRICS+ Gold and Commodities backed Trading Currency to be announced, de-dollarisation, the number of nation states queuing up to both join BRICS+, the SCO, who are de-dollarising their trade settlements and you get the picture, the true reality of what is driving the rhetoric, conflating alleged Chinese infractions with real politik, the real agenda by the. U.S to cling to a weakening and all but self destroyed and short lived period of dominance, of empire.
Perhaps in being more accepting, seeking pro at ways to work with and within the new multipolar world China is ushering in vs the “Rules (Yours) Based Order” so keenly being preserved, your nation might retain its position, indeed enhance its position, forestalling what on the face of it seems all but inevitable now, I’d like to think you’d at least led the W.H and State Dept, that you’d have the sense and nouse to try, why not, what could possibly be worse than adopting a conciliatory yet firm position underscoring that which is important the U.S whilst acknowledging their position, somewhere in the midst of it all will be found common ground v the one sided enmity that is all to prevalent of late… an enmity that sadly might result in the atypical U.S outcome of death, destruction, displacement and debasement, time me thinks to try a new script. Where’s the harm…
Your wrong.
China is taking advantage of our inept leadership . Yellin bowing & Binken ‘s co- towing to China will weaken us to the point of no return. The only thing to do is vote by the millions.
Biden is funded by the CCP, as the Hunter laptop showed.
Biden et al fit the descriiption of totalitarian mass leaders of Anna Arendt: "The totalitarian mass leaders based their propaganda on the correct psychological assumption that under such conditions one could make people believe the most fantastic statements one day and trust that if the next day they were given irrefutable proof of their falsehood they would take refuge in cynicism instead of deserting the leaders who had lied to them, they would protest that they had known all along that the statement was a lie and would admire the leaders for their tactical cleverness.