The United States Has No Time To Spare To Rebuild Its Navy

Amb. Robert C. O'Brien

The optimism of the early post-Cold War period has been replaced by a renewed understanding that Great Power conflict has returned to shape 21st-century geopolitics. China, the greatest threat America has encountered since at least World War II, is arming itself at an astonishing rate and seeking to assert its primacy in the Indo-Pacific and, increasingly, across the globe. Nowhere is this threat more apparent than in the competition for naval supremacy.

The rise of The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and a concomitant American failure to invest appropriately in the future of its seapower has placed U.S. maritime power at risk. The U.S. has a shrinking Navy suited for the past three decades, not the next three. Seapower requires constant tending and investment. Failure to make the required investments will reap enormously negative consequences for U.S. national security for decades to come if it is not remedied now.

America's diminished fleet size and readiness is a reflection of how Washington bureaucrats neglect Navy requirements and budgets. For too long, they have taken American maritime primacy for granted and assumed the U.S. would not face a peer competitor like the PLAN.

The U.S. needs to build a navy that will deter adversaries and, if necessary, decisively defeat adversaries in battle. The Navy officially says it requires at least 381 ships to adequately fulfill its mission and defend American interests around the world. A former Chief of Naval Operations even stated that the correct number was closer to 500 ships. Reaching 381 ships is not some unattainable goal. It represents the absolute bare minimum to uphold core U.S. national interests. Yet, it is one the U.S. continuously fails to meet, year after year, even as threats to U.S. interests and American maritime supremacy metastasis.

According to the Congressional Budget Office assessment of the Navy shipbuilding plan for 2024, under the most optimistic scenario, “If the Navy adhered to the schedule for purchases and ship retirements outlined in its 2024 plan, by 2053 the number of battle force ships would increase from 290 today to 367.” This schedule is twenty years too late and would fall short of the bare minimum requirements even under the most optimistic scenario. It would also leave the fleet smaller over the next decade than it is today.

China's Navy has more than 370 ships and submarines and is on track to reach 435 battle force ships by 2030. It is past time for the Biden Administration to recognize this reality. President Trump knew the score even if DOD leadership did not.  That is why industrial base expert Peter Navarro, acting OMB Director Russ Vought, and I came up with a fully funded plan to rebuild the Navy in a decade.

Right now, America's greatest adversary is running circles around the U.S. when it comes to shipbuilding, and the current administration has no idea how to catch up. The Secretary of the Navy and CNO are showing some outside the box thinking to remedy this problem, beginning with bipartisan legislation to undertake a national program of shipbuilding expansion that increases the number of construction and repair yards available.  The problem is that the White House and Secretary of Defense are nowhere to be found on the issue.

While it is important to be ready to fight in 2050, China will not wait to operate on America's timetable. The U.S. needs to be able to fight and win sea battles today and tomorrow, not just in the hypothetical budgetary “out years.” While there is a critical need to boost shipyard productivity and to field more advanced capabilities on our ships, the Department of Defense's own procurement policies have contributed to our current decline. Contractors have been saddled by the Navy with numerous change orders on designs, which could significantly delay the program and lead to cost overruns.

Furthermore, our Navy has long been built around our carrier force, but America's carriers are losing relevance as they become more vulnerable to modern missiles. To ensure our most potent platform remains so, the U.S. needs to invest in our carrier air wings to increase their range so that they can strike targets from outside the PLA's Anti-Access/Area Denial zones.

Inexplicably, the Navy is continuing plans to retire ships approaching their service life end. This is not a time to scrap America's Navy. "Divest to Invest" is a recipe for decline and mediocrity, not deterrence and strength. Instead, the Navy should pursue service-life extensions for many ships currently slated for retirement. The Navy should also recall into service ships such as the remaining sturdy Perry-class frigates that are in the ready-reserve fleet until the future frigate program has adequate numbers. Of course, these priorities must be funded by Congress and the White House.

Seen from both history and current events, the ability of our navy to project power by sea, defend America, protect our economic interests, and keep American citizens safe is key for U.S. national security. The U.S. is witnessing a significant decline in America's seapower and, with it, America's fundamental national power. During the Trump Administration, the challenge of America's diminishing naval power was a top issue. The President himself even required naval architects and contractors to come to the Oval Office to explain why key programs were delayed and over budget. Today, finding and implementing solutions to this crisis will require leadership in Congress, the White House, and the Pentagon, who are clear-eyed about the threats we face but also prepared to take innovative and unprecedented measures that are necessary to right this ship.

Robert C. O’Brien served as the 27^th US National Security Advisor from 2019-2021, and is a guest columnist for Peter Navarro’s Taking Back Trump’s America

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